FPL Gameweek 30 Tips: Best Picks by Probability

Fine Line

Gameweek 30 Tips: What the Data Says

Erling Haaland leads all goalscorer probabilities at 55.39% this week, making him the clearest captaincy option in the data. Mohamed Salah sits at 41.41%, nearly 14 percentage points behind Haaland, which reinforces Haaland as the top pick rather than a coin flip between the two. If you are looking for a differential, Hugo Ekitike and Igor Thiago both sit at 48.31%, placing them second in the goalscorer rankings and well ahead of most premium options.

Captain Pick

Haaland at 55.39% is the straightforward choice. That probability is over 6 percentage points clear of the next two players and reflects a genuine edge in the data. Salah at 41.41% remains a strong alternative for those who hold him, but the gap between the two is meaningful enough to favour Haaland where possible.

Goalscorer Probabilities

These are anytime goalscorer probabilities generated by Fine Line, a free FPL stats app available on iOS and Android.

A few names worth noting beyond the top three: Viktor Gyokeres and Gabriel Jesus both sit at 39.53%, placing them ahead of Cole Palmer, Sesko, and Mbeumo who are clustered at 38.65%. The gap between Haaland and the rest of the top 20 is notable. Only Ekitike and Thiago come within 7 percentage points of him, and both carry differential appeal given their lower ownership levels in most squads.

Kaye Furo at 41.41% is the same probability as Salah, which may surprise some managers. If you are considering a transfer into the mid-price range, that number is worth factoring into your decision.

Clean Sheet Probabilities

Arsenal have the highest clean sheet probability this week at 52.70%, a significant margin over the rest of the table. Liverpool are second at 42.11%, followed by Brentford at 40.26%.

Arsenal's 52.70% is over 10 percentage points clear of Liverpool in second place, making their defensive assets particularly attractive this week. Brentford at 40.26% stand out as a value option, sitting above several higher-profile sides. At the bottom, Tottenham at 10.90% and Everton at 15.37% are fixtures to avoid when selecting defenders.

Summary

• Captain: Haaland (55.39%)

• Differential attacker: Ekitike or Thiago (both 48.31%)

• Defensive focus: Arsenal and Liverpool defenders offer the strongest clean sheet backing

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