FPL Gameweek 31 Tips: Best Picks by Probability
Fine Line's goalscorer, assist, and clean sheet probabilities for Gameweek 31. Here are the top picks.
Gameweek 31 Tips
Raul Jimenez leads the goalscorer probabilities this week at 39.53%, making him the standout number based on Fine Line's data. At 3.3% ownership, he is a genuine differential. Bryan Mbeumo sits just behind at 37.81% with 22.8% ownership, and Hugo Ekitike follows at 36.69% with 36% ownership. If you are looking for a captain pick with high probability and low ownership risk, Jimenez is the clearest option the data supports.
For transfers, Dominic Calvert-Lewin (34.78%, 7.7% owned) and Ollie Watkins (34.78%, 8.3% owned) share the same probability and offer mid-range ownership profiles. Both have played full minutes across the last five gameweeks, confirming their starter status.
Note on Dominic Solanke: he carries a 75% chance of playing due to a hip injury. His probability of 33.44% is solid, but the availability risk makes him a poor captain choice and a questionable transfer target unless his status improves before the deadline.
Mohamed Salah is listed at 75% to play with a muscle injury. Factor that in before selecting him, despite his 30.30% goalscoring probability.
Goalscorer Probabilities
| Player | 1+ goals % | Ownership |
|---|---|---|
| Raul Jimenez | 39.53% | 3.3% |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 37.81% | 22.8% |
| Hugo Ekitike | 36.69% | 36.0% |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 34.78% | 7.7% |
| Igor Thiago | 34.78% | 36.4% |
| Ollie Watkins | 34.78% | 8.3% |
| Dominic Solanke | 33.44% | 1.2% |
| Cole Palmer | 33.19% | 17.5% |
| Eli Junior Kroupi | 31.62% | 6.1% |
| Matheus Cunha | 31.62% | 8.3% |
| Harry Wilson | 31.62% | 23.8% |
| Morgan Rogers | 31.62% | 24.9% |
| Evanilson | 30.30% | 2.2% |
| Danny Welbeck | 30.30% | 4.0% |
| Mohamed Salah | 30.30% | 14.7% |
| Joao Pedro | 30.30% | 50.7% |
| Anthony Gordon | 30.30% | 6.1% |
| Harvey Barnes | 30.30% | 1.2% |
A few players worth noting from the table:
• Joao Pedro is the most-owned player in the top 20 at 50.7%, with a 30.30% probability. He is 9 percentage points behind Jimenez.
• Igor Thiago and Hugo Ekitike both sit above 34%, with ownership around 36%. Their probability is strong, but the ownership level reduces their differential value.
• Cole Palmer at 33.19% with 17.5% ownership is a reasonable mid-ownership option with strong recent minutes (423 in the last five gameweeks).
Clean Sheet Probabilities
Fulham lead all clubs with a 42.97% clean sheet probability against Burnley. Newcastle follow at 39.43% against Sunderland, making defenders from both sides worth considering.
| Club | Opponent | Clean Sheet % |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham | Burnley | 42.97% |
| Newcastle United | Sunderland | 39.43% |
| Chelsea | Everton | 31.40% |
| Aston Villa | West Ham United | 30.72% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | Nottingham Forest | 30.72% |
| Leeds United | Brentford | 28.57% |
| Liverpool | Brighton & Hove Albion | 27.35% |
| Brentford | Leeds United | 26.32% |
| Manchester United | AFC Bournemouth | 26.04% |
| Nottingham Forest | Tottenham Hotspur | 24.55% |
| Everton | Chelsea | 23.08% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Liverpool | 21.42% |
| West Ham United | Aston Villa | 20.63% |
| AFC Bournemouth | Manchester United | 19.49% |
| Sunderland | Newcastle United | 18.57% |
| Burnley | Fulham | 16.79% |
Fulham's probability is 3.54 percentage points clear of Newcastle, and both are well ahead of the rest of the field. If you are targeting defensive assets this week, those two fixtures stand out clearly. Chelsea at 31.40% against Everton is the next best option for managers who already hold assets from the top two.
These chances are of course subject to change before the deadline. Live probabilities can always be found in the Fine Line app - for free.
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