FPL Gameweek 33 Tips: Best Picks by Probability
Fine Line's goalscorer, assist, and clean sheet probabilities for Gameweek 33. Here are the top picks.
Gameweek 33 Captain and Transfer Tips
Erling Haaland leads Fine Line's goalscorer probabilities at 81.36% with 59.6% ownership — he is the clear top pick for captain this week. His last five gameweeks show 360 minutes, meaning he has not played every game in full, but his availability is confirmed at 100% and the probability gap between him and the field is significant. The second-highest probability belongs to Dominic Calvert-Lewin at 61.67%, nearly 20 percentage points behind Haaland. Captaining Haaland is straightforward this week.
For transfers, Dominic Calvert-Lewin at 11.1% ownership stands out. A 61.67% goalscoring probability with that ownership level is a meaningful differential. He is confirmed available and has played all 450 minutes across the last five gameweeks, which confirms his starting status. Antoine Semenyo at 58.65% is already owned by 56.8% of managers, so he offers less upside as a transfer target, though he remains a strong hold.
Eli Junior Kroupi (56.39%, 5.8% ownership) is another differential worth noting. His season minutes are lower at 1,232, but he has accumulated 276 minutes across the last five gameweeks, confirming he is in the picture. At under 6% ownership, the upside is real if you can fit him in.
Gameweek 33 Goalscorer Probabilities
| Player | Probability | Ownership |
|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 81.36% | 59.6% |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 61.67% | 11.1% |
| Antoine Semenyo | 58.65% | 56.8% |
| Eli Junior Kroupi | 56.39% | 5.8% |
| Danny Welbeck | 55.70% | 8.6% |
| Rayan Cherki | 53.72% | 33.2% |
| Cole Palmer | 53.61% | 19.2% |
| Evanilson | 52.74% | 2.6% |
| Joao Pedro | 52.11% | 50.6% |
| Rayan Vitor | 46.45% | 1.9% |
| Diego Gomez | 44.62% | 1.0% |
| Brenden Aaronson | 43.69% | 1.2% |
| Lorenzo Lucca | 41.41% | 12.4% |
| Yankuba Minteh | 39.89% | 2.7% |
| Enzo Fernandez | 38.61% | 12.4% |
| Igor Thiago | 37.81% | 33.8% |
| Ollie Watkins | 36.23% | 8.2% |
| Marcus Tavernier | 35.35% | 5.3% |
| Anthony Gordon | 34.78% | 7.2% |
| Zian Flemming | 34.71% | 0.4% |
A few players in the mid-table range are worth highlighting. Cole Palmer (53.61%, 19.2% ownership) has played 439 minutes across the last five gameweeks and is confirmed available. Danny Welbeck at 55.70% and 8.6% ownership offers differential value with full availability confirmed. Evanilson at 52.74% and just 2.6% ownership is the most extreme differential in the top ten — he has 387 minutes in the last five gameweeks and is confirmed fit.
Diego Gomez (44.62%, 1.0% ownership) and Brenden Aaronson (43.69%, 1.2% ownership) both sit in the lower ownership bracket with solid probabilities. These are speculative picks rather than core recommendations, but the numbers are there for managers willing to take the risk.
Gameweek 33 Clean Sheet Probabilities
| Club | Opponent | Clean Sheet % |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds United | Wolverhampton Wanderers & AFC Bournemouth | 54.51% |
| Nottingham Forest | Burnley | 44.00% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Tottenham Hotspur & Chelsea | 42.88% |
| Chelsea | Manchester United & Brighton & Hove Albion | 42.16% |
| Aston Villa | Sunderland | 42.11% |
| AFC Bournemouth | Leeds United & Newcastle United | 40.83% |
| Manchester City | Arsenal | 38.46% |
| Crystal Palace | West Ham United | 31.40% |
| Liverpool | Everton | 30.72% |
| Brentford | Fulham | 30.02% |
| Newcastle United | AFC Bournemouth | 26.04% |
| West Ham United | Crystal Palace | 24.55% |
| Everton | Liverpool | 23.83% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | Brighton & Hove Albion | 23.08% |
| Fulham | Brentford | 21.42% |
| Arsenal | Manchester City | 20.63% |
| Manchester United | Chelsea | 19.49% |
| Sunderland | Aston Villa | 19.49% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | Leeds United | 18.57% |
| Burnley | Nottingham Forest | 16.06% |
Leeds United top the clean sheet table at 54.51%, though they face two fixtures this gameweek which affects how that probability is calculated. Nottingham Forest at 44.00% against Burnley is the cleanest single-fixture clean sheet opportunity near the top of the table. Brighton defenders and Chelsea defenders both sit above 42%, making them worth considering for your backline this week.
At the bottom, Burnley (16.06%) and Wolverhampton Wanderers (18.57%) offer very little defensive value. Arsenal at 20.63% facing Manchester City is a difficult fixture reflected clearly in the data.
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