FPL Gameweek 34 Tips: Best Picks by Probability
Fine Line's goalscorer, assist, and clean sheet probabilities for Gameweek 34. Here are the top picks.
Gameweek 34 Tips
Dominic Solanke and Benjamin Sesko leads Fine Line's anytime goalscorer probabilities at 39.53%, with Solanke the more compelling differential at just 2% ownership. He has played 433 minutes in the last five gameweeks, so there are no rotation concerns. Sesko has 293 minutes across the same period, which is noticeably lower than the others near the top of the table - worth keeping in mind when weighing him up.
Bryan Mbeumo also sits at 39.53% but carries a 75% chance of playing flag. Factor that uncertainty in before captaining or transferring him in.
Mohamed Salah at 37.81% and 16% ownership remains a strong option. Bukayo Saka appears in the data at 34.78% but has a 0% chance of playing due to an Achilles injury with no return date confirmed - he should not be in your plans for GW34.
Goalscorer Probabilities
| Player | Probability | Ownership |
|---|---|---|
| Dominic Solanke | 39.53% | 2.0% |
| Benjamin Sesko | 39.53% | 6.1% |
| Bryan Mbeumo* | 39.53% | 18.2% |
| Mohamed Salah | 37.81% | 16.0% |
| Bukayo Saka** | 34.78% | 7.0% |
| Rodrigo Muniz | 33.19% | 0.7% |
| Igor Thiago | 33.19% | 35.3% |
| Matheus Cunha | 33.19% | 9.5% |
| Ollie Watkins | 31.62% | 13.9% |
| Jarrod Bowen | 30.30% | 14.0% |
| Mathys Tel | 30.30% | 0.1% |
| Morgan Rogers | 28.99% | 24.2% |
| Cody Gakpo | 28.99% | 5.9% |
| Brian Brobbey | 28.05% | 1.2% |
| Lorenzo Lucca | 28.05% | 11.8% |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | 28.05% | 13.4% |
| Florian Wirtz | 28.05% | 9.2% |
| Beto* | 28.05% | 3.5% |
| Taty Castellanos | 28.05% | 0.2% |
*75% chance of playing. **0% chance of playing — do not select.
A few names worth highlighting beyond the top five:
• Rodrigo Muniz at 33.19% and 0.7% ownership is the standout differential in this list. He has 284 minutes in the last five gameweeks, so beware of that.
• Mathys Tel at 30.30% and 0.1% ownership is extreme differential territory. His season minutes are 953, reflecting a limited role earlier in the campaign, but his last five gameweek total of 292 minutes shows he now gets more minutes.
• Beto is listed at 28.05% but carries a 75% chance of playing due to a head injury. Avoid unless his status clears.
Clean Sheet Probabilities
| Club | Opponent | Clean Sheet % |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | Newcastle | 40.26% |
| Liverpool | Crystal Palace | 39.43% |
| Tottenham | Wolves | 35.15% |
| Sunderland | Nottm Forest | 30.72% |
| Nottm Forest | Sunderland | 30.72% |
| West Ham | Everton | 28.89% |
| Man Utd | Brentford | 28.89% |
| Aston Villa | Fulham | 26.04% |
| Everton | West Ham | 24.80% |
| Fulham | Aston Villa | 24.55% |
| Wolves | Tottenham | 18.43% |
| Brentford | Man Utd | 17.58% |
| Newcastle | Arsenal | 14.25% |
| Crystal Palace | Liverpool | 13.26% |
Arsenal and Liverpool defenders are the strongest clean sheet options this week, both above 39%. Arsenal sit 0.83 percentage points ahead of Liverpool at the top. Tottenham at 35.15% against Wolves is also worth noting for defenders in that price range.
Sunderland and Nottingham Forest share identical 30.72% probabilities against each other, which is a reasonable return for a mid-table fixture. West Ham and Manchester United both sit at 28.89%.
Newcastle defenders face Arsenal and carry only a 14.25% clean sheet probability — the lowest of any side with a realistic defensive asset base. Crystal Palace at 13.26% against Liverpool is similarly unattractive from a clean sheet standpoint.
Get these probabilities free in Fine Line on iOS and Android.
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