FPL Gameweek 35 Tips: Best Picks by Probability

Fine Line

Gameweek 35 Captain and Transfer Tips

Erling Haaland leads Fine Line's goalscorer probabilities at 56.83% with 59.7% ownership — the highest probability in the list by a clear margin. With 450 minutes across the last five gameweeks, he is a regular starter and the most reliable captaincy option this week.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin sits second at 45.77% with just 11.7% ownership. That combination makes him the standout differential pick of the gameweek. He has played every minute across the last five gameweeks and his probability is nearly 11 percentage points ahead of the next cluster of players. At that ownership level, he is worth serious attention for managers looking to gain ground.

Igor Thiago ranks third at 42.42% with 35.3% ownership and the highest season minute total in the top five at 2,922. He has also played all 450 available minutes across the last five gameweeks, confirming his place as a consistent starter.

One player to avoid captaining this week: Dominic Solanke is listed at 31.62% but carries a 50% chance of playing due to a muscle injury. The probability is not high enough to justify the risk given his availability doubt.

Matheus Cunha is also worth noting — he is at 75% to play due to a hip injury. Factor that in before any transfer decision.

Gameweek 35 Goalscorer Probabilities

A few names in the mid-range stand out on ownership grounds. Evanilson at 36.23% is owned by just 2.5% of managers. Brenden Aaronson and Brian Brobbey both sit at 1.2% ownership with probabilities above 30%. These are low-ceiling differentials, but the numbers are there if you need separation.

Cole Palmer and Bryan Mbeumo share the same 36.69%/36.23% probability band and both sit at 16.7% ownership — neither is a differential, but both are reasonable mid-price options.

Clean Sheet Probabilities

Arsenal lead the clean sheet table at 47.30%, with Leeds United close behind at 44.30%. Manchester City at 41.10% complete the top three. These three fixtures offer the clearest clean sheet probability for defenders and goalkeepers this week.

At the other end, Burnley, Everton, and Fulham all sit at or below 16.06%. Defenders from those sides carry the most clean sheet risk in Gameweek 35.

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