FPL Gameweek 36 Tips: Best Picks by Probability

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Gameweek 36 Captain and Transfer Tips

Erling Haaland leads Fine Line's goalscorer probabilities at 84.99% with 62.9% ownership — he is the clear captain choice this week. At that probability, there is no realistic case for looking elsewhere unless you are chasing a differential. His 450 minutes across the last five gameweeks confirm he is playing full games consistently.

The more interesting decision is who to pair alongside him. Antoine Semenyo sits second in the list at 66.88% with 49.6% ownership, nearly 18 percentage points clear of the next player. If you do not own him, he is the standout transfer candidate this week. His 392 minutes across the last five gameweeks show he is a regular starter.

Rayan Cherki at 59.33% is the third-highest probability in the list and carries 35.2% ownership. His 450 minutes in the last five gameweeks are as high as Haaland's, confirming consistent starts.

One player to avoid this week: Dominic Solanke is listed at 34.78% probability but has a 0% chance of playing according to FPL, with a muscle injury and no confirmed return date. Do not factor him into your plans.

Benjamin Sesko is rated at 34.78% but carries a 75% chance of playing due to a shin injury. If you own him, that uncertainty is worth noting before captaining or starting him.

Gameweek 36 Goalscorer Probabilities

Differential Picks Worth Noting

A few low-ownership players have probabilities that stand out relative to how few managers own them:

• Danny Welbeck: 48.31% probability, 8.3% ownership. That gap between probability and ownership is one of the largest in the top ten.

• Jeremy Doku: 44.95% probability, 3.6% ownership. His 372 minutes across the last five gameweeks confirm he is starting regularly.

• Ismaila Sarr: 36.72% probability, 5.5% ownership. His 282 minutes in the last five gameweeks are the lowest in this group, so rotation is a factor, but the probability still holds.

• Eli Junior Kroupi: 36.23% probability, 6.0% ownership. His 307 minutes across the last five gameweeks place him in the regular-starter bracket.

Gameweek 36 Clean Sheet Probabilities

Manchester City have a double gameweek this week, facing Crystal Palace and Brentford, which pushes their clean sheet probability to 67.74% — the highest in the league by a significant margin. Brighton are second at 44.30% against Wolverhampton Wanderers, and Aston Villa third at 39.13% against Burnley.

For defenders and goalkeepers, Manchester City's 67.74% probability makes their backline the most attractive option in Gameweek 36. Brighton at 44.30% and Aston Villa at 39.13% are the next best options for managers without City assets.

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