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FPL Gameweek 37 Tips: Best Picks by Probability

Fine Line's goalscorer, assist, and clean sheet probabilities for Gameweek 37. Here are the top picks.

GW37 Probabilities

Fine Line

Gameweek 37 Captain and Transfer Tips

The Fine Line probability model gives us clear direction heading into Gameweek 37. Here are the numbers that matter most.

Captain Picks

Erling Haaland leads all goalscorer probabilities at 56.83%, facing Burnley who carry the lowest clean sheet probability in the dataset at just 6.37%. He is confirmed fit and available. At 64.5% ownership, he is the most-owned player in this list, so captaining him is the low-risk, high-floor call this week.

Gabriel Jesus sits level with Haaland's closest rival at 55.39% and is fully available. His last five gameweeks show 450 minutes, meaning he has started every game in that stretch. At 45.5% ownership, he is widely held but still worth the armband consideration if you want to differentiate slightly from the Haaland majority.

Viktor Gyokeres matches Jesus at 55.39% but is owned by just 16% of managers, making him the standout differential captain option this week. He has played 305 minutes across the last five gameweeks and is confirmed fit. If you have him, he is a strong armband candidate.

Transfers to Consider

Igor Thiago (42.42%, 32.1% ownership) has played every available minute over the last five gameweeks — 450 out of 450 — and is fully fit. His probability sits nearly 9 percentage points clear of the next tier of players, and his ownership is high enough to suggest managers already recognise his value.

Rodrigo Muniz (37.81%) is the low-ownership name worth noting. At just 0.7% ownership, he offers genuine differential potential. His season minutes are lower at 850, but he has played 276 minutes across the last five gameweeks, indicating regular recent involvement.

Benjamin Sesko (39.53%) is listed at 75% to play due to a shin injury. He is not a recommended transfer target this week given that uncertainty, but if he is confirmed fit before your deadline, the probability justifies attention.

Gameweek 37 Goalscorer Probabilities

Player	Probability	Ownership
Erling Haaland	56.83%	64.5%
Gabriel Jesus	55.39%	45.5%
Viktor Gyokeres	55.39%	16.0%
Igor Thiago	42.42%	32.1%
Benjamin Sesko	39.53%	5.4%
Rodrigo Muniz	37.81%	0.7%
Eberechi Eze	36.69%	8.9%
Antoine Semenyo	36.69%	47.7%
Beto	36.23%	3.1%
Danny Welbeck	36.23%	9.5%
Matheus Cunha	34.78%	8.2%
William Osula	34.78%	1.0%
Ollie Watkins	33.44%	14.2%
Dominic Calvert-Lewin	33.44%	13.0%
Iliman Ndiaye	31.62%	4.5%
Emile Smith Rowe	31.62%	0.5%
Harry Wilson	31.62%	18.9%
Jarrod Bowen	31.62%	12.7%
Rayan Cherki	31.62%	1.6%
Morgan Rogers	30.30%	23.0%

Clean Sheet Probabilities

Arsenal's 58.90% clean sheet probability against Burnley stands well clear of the rest of the table — more than 22 percentage points ahead of second-placed Everton. That fixture context reinforces the case for Arsenal defensive assets this week.

Club	Opponent	Clean Sheet %
Arsenal	Burnley	58.90%
Everton	Sunderland	36.25%
Manchester United	Nottingham Forest	35.64%
Brentford	Crystal Palace	34.15%
Fulham	Wolverhampton Wanderers	32.08%
Brighton & Hove Albion	Leeds United	27.35%
Liverpool	Aston Villa	24.30%
Newcastle United	West Ham United	24.30%
Leeds United	Brighton & Hove Albion	21.42%
Sunderland	Everton	20.63%
Aston Villa	Liverpool	19.49%
Wolverhampton Wanderers	Fulham	19.49%
West Ham United	Newcastle United	18.43%
Crystal Palace	Brentford	17.58%
Nottingham Forest	Manchester United	14.85%
Burnley	Arsenal	6.37%