FPL Gameweek 38 Tips: Best Picks by Probability

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Gameweek 38 Captain and Transfer Tips

Erling Haaland leads all goalscorer probabilities at 65.38% with 64.2% ownership — if you have him, he's the straightforward captain pick this week. The gap between him and the second-highest probability is nearly 20 percentage points, which makes the decision simple to justify with the numbers alone.

For those without Haaland, Antoine Semenyo at 45.77% is the next strongest option and is owned by 46.7% of managers, so he carries less differential value but remains a high-probability pick. Danny Welbeck at 41.41% with just 8.8% ownership is worth noting if you want a differential with a strong probability behind it.

Zian Flemming also sits at 41.41% with only 0.5% ownership — the lowest ownership of any player in the top five by probability. He has played all 408 available minutes across the last five gameweeks, confirming he is a regular starter.

Kaoru Mitoma appears in the raw data at 30.30% but is listed as 0% to play in FPL due to a hamstring injury, with an expected return date of June 1. Do not factor him into your GW38 plans.

Gameweek 38 Goalscorer Probabilities

*Mitoma is 0% to play in FPL (hamstring injury). Do not select him.

A few players worth highlighting beyond the top names:

• Richarlison and Eli Junior Kroupi both sit at 37.81% with ownership under 8%. Both have played consistent minutes across the last five gameweeks.

• Evanilson at 34.78% with 2.4% ownership has 387 minutes across the last five gameweeks — he is a regular starter with genuine differential potential.

• Taty Castellanos at 33.44% with just 0.2% ownership is the lowest-owned player in the top 12 by probability.

• Gabriel Jesus at 31.62% carries 45.9% ownership, making him one of the most-owned players in this list despite sitting outside the top 10 by probability.

Gameweek 38 Clean Sheet Probabilities

Manchester City lead the clean sheet probabilities at 35.64%, followed by Arsenal and West Ham United both at 33.01%. Aston Villa have the lowest clean sheet probability of any side this week at 8.49%, reflecting the difficulty of their fixture.

For defenders and goalkeepers, the top five clubs by clean sheet probability all sit above 31%, giving a reasonable cluster of options to target.

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