FPL Gameweek 7 Tips: Best Picks by Probability

Fine Line

Gameweek 7 Tips: Captain Picks, Differentials, and Clean Sheet Targets

Erling Haaland leads Fine Line's goalscorer probabilities at 60.39% for Gameweek 7, with a 20.08% assist probability on top of that. At 75.4% ownership, he is the default captain option and the data supports that. There is no credible case for captaining anyone else this week.

The more interesting decisions sit further down the list. Igor Thiago (43.48% goalscorer probability, 9.2% ownership) and Charalampos Kostoulas (39.53%, 8.7% ownership) both carry strong numbers at low ownership, making them viable transfer targets if you need attacking coverage. Antoine Semenyo (38.65%, 13.8% ownership) is confirmed 100% to play and has logged 540 minutes this season, the joint-highest in the dataset alongside Haaland. He also appears in the assist list at 20.08%, giving him a genuine route to returns beyond goals alone.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin sits at 38.65% alongside Semenyo, with 509 season minutes and a solid 419 in the last five gameweeks. At 22.6% ownership he offers a reasonable balance between differential value and reliability.

One player to avoid captaining or transferring in without caution: Alexander Isak is listed at 33.19% goalscorer probability and 14% ownership, but FPL has him at 0% chance of playing due to a thigh injury with no confirmed return date. Do not factor him into your Gameweek 7 plans.

Goalscorer Probabilities

*Isak is listed at 0% chance of playing (thigh injury, no return date confirmed).

Assist Probabilities

Rayan Cherki leads the assist chart at 39.53%, which puts him nearly 15 percentage points clear of the next player, Elliot Anderson at 24.84%. Cherki also appears in the goalscorer list at 31.62%, and at 32.4% ownership he is one of the more widely held players in this dataset. His 365 minutes across the last five gameweeks confirm he is a regular starter.

Maxim De Cuyper (23.19%, 35.9% ownership) and Bruno Fernandes (23.19%, 34.2% ownership) are the two most-owned players in the assist list outside of Haaland and João Pedro. Both have played full minutes across the season.

One name worth noting at low ownership: Sávio (21.74%, 0.7% ownership) is confirmed 100% to play. His season minutes are lower at 330, but all of those have come in the last five gameweeks, meaning he is a current starter. At that ownership level, he is a genuine differential for assist returns.

Christos Tzolis appears in the assist data at 21.74% but is listed at 0% chance of playing due to a hamstring injury, with an expected return around 1 November. Ignore him for this gameweek.

Clean Sheet Probabilities

Manchester City and Arsenal defenders are the standout clean sheet options at 44.15% each. Tottenham defenders are worth considering at 39.23% against Coventry. For those looking at Fulham or Brighton defenders, both sit at 35.47% against Hull and Crystal Palace respectively, which is a reasonable probability at what are likely to be lower price points.

All probabilities are generated by Fine Line's model and reflect current form, fixture difficulty, and squad data.

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