AC Milan vs Benfica: match preview

Fine Line

Benfica arrive in form, Milan searching for consistency

AC Milan host Benfica at San Siro on Wednesday evening in the Europa League group stage, and the numbers tell a fairly clear story before a ball is kicked. Benfica arrive on the back of five consecutive Liga Portugal wins, having conceded just once in that run, while Milan have drawn their last two Serie A outings and carry questions about their defensive solidity at the top level.

Form

Milan's domestic form over the past five matches is a mixed picture. Two wins, two draws and a loss, with the xG figures raising a few eyebrows. The 1-1 draw at Juventus was particularly telling: Milan generated just 0.11 xG, suggesting a fortunate point rather than a controlled performance. The 2-2 at Lazio last weekend was more balanced, though they were slightly outshot on expected goals there too.

Benfica, by contrast, have been ruthless. Five wins from five in Liga Portugal, including a 7-0 demolition of Casa Pia and a 4-0 away win at Moreirense. Their xG numbers back up the scorelines. They are averaging 2.42 xG per game away from home this season, while conceding an average of just 0.42 xG in those same fixtures. That is an exceptional defensive record for a side playing on the road.

Season stats

Benfica's xGA per 90 of 0.21 is the standout figure in that table. They are conceding very little in terms of quality chances, which makes their defensive record more than just a product of weak opposition. Milan's xG per 90 of 1.25 ranks third in Serie A, suggesting they do create, but converting those chances against a Benfica backline in this kind of form is a different proposition.

Availability

There are no high or medium impact absences to report for either side ahead of this fixture. Milan are without Warren Bondo (midfield, unknown injury) and Jakub Kaminski (forward, metatarsal bruise), though both are rated low impact. Sankhoun Diawara serves a suspension at the back, also rated low impact. Benfica have a clean bill of health.

Schedule

Both sides are operating on short rest. Milan played at Lazio four days ago and face Lecce in Serie A four days after this match. Benfica beat Gil Vicente at home three days ago and travel to face Porto in Liga Portugal four days after this Europa League fixture. Neither team has the luxury of a full week's preparation, though the symmetry of the situation means fatigue is unlikely to be a decisive factor for one side over the other.

Fine Line model

The Fine Line model gives Benfica a clear edge, with a 43.9 per cent probability of a win compared to 31.7 per cent for Milan. The draw sits at 24.4 per cent. Both teams to score comes in at 56.9 per cent, and the model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 58.9 per cent. The most likely correct score is 1-1 at 10.5 per cent, followed by 1-2 at 8.5 per cent and 0-1 at 7.8 per cent, which reflects the model leaning toward a Benfica win but acknowledging Milan's capacity to contribute to the scoreline.

What to watch

Whether Milan's xG output translates into actual goals against a Benfica side conceding barely anything in expected terms is the central question. Benfica's away form this season has been close to flawless, and until Milan show they can perform consistently against top-level opposition, it is difficult to argue strongly against the Portuguese side.

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