Fine Line's goalscorer and clean sheet probabilities for Gameweek 30. Here are the top picks.

Erling Haaland leads all goalscorer probabilities at 55.39% this week, making him the clearest captaincy option in the data. Mohamed Salah sits at 41.41%, nearly 14 percentage points behind Haaland, which reinforces Haaland as the top pick rather than a coin flip between the two. If you are looking for a differential, Hugo Ekitike and Igor Thiago both sit at 48.31%, placing them second in the goalscorer rankings and well ahead of most premium options.

Haaland at 55.39% is the straightforward choice. That probability is over 6 percentage points clear of the next two players and reflects a genuine edge in the data. Salah at 41.41% remains a strong alternative for those who hold him, but the gap between the two is meaningful enough to favour Haaland where possible.

These are anytime goalscorer probabilities generated by Fine Line, a free FPL stats app available on iOS and Android.

| Player | Probability |
|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 55.39% |
| Hugo Ekitike | 48.31% |
| Igor Thiago | 48.31% |
| Mohamed Salah | 41.41% |
| Kaye Furo | 41.41% |
| Gabriel Jesus | 39.53% |
| Viktor Gyokeres | 39.53% |
| Cole Palmer | 38.65% |
| Benjamin Sesko | 38.65% |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 38.65% |
| Eli Junior Kroupi | 37.81% |
| Jayden Danns | 36.69% |
| Evanilson | 36.23% |
| Joao Pedro | 36.23% |
| Liam Delap | 36.23% |
| Marc Guiu | 36.23% |
| Shumaira Mheuka | 36.23% |
| Omar Marmoush | 36.23% |
| Reiss Nelson | 36.23% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | 34.78% |

A few names worth noting beyond the top three: Viktor Gyokeres and Gabriel Jesus both sit at 39.53%, placing them ahead of Cole Palmer, Sesko, and Mbeumo who are clustered at 38.65%. The gap between Haaland and the rest of the top 20 is notable. Only Ekitike and Thiago come within 7 percentage points of him, and both carry differential appeal given their lower ownership levels in most squads.

Kaye Furo at 41.41% is the same probability as Salah, which may surprise some managers. If you are considering a transfer into the mid-price range, that number is worth factoring into your decision.

Arsenal have the highest clean sheet probability this week at 52.70%, a significant margin over the rest of the table. Liverpool are second at 42.11%, followed by Brentford at 40.26%.

| Club | Opponent | Clean Sheet % |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | Everton | 52.70% |
| Liverpool | Tottenham Hotspur | 42.11% |
| Brentford | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 40.26% |
| Manchester United | Aston Villa | 34.89% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Sunderland | 33.73% |
| AFC Bournemouth | Burnley | 33.01% |
| Manchester City | West Ham United | 31.40% |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | 31.40% |
| Crystal Palace | Leeds United | 30.72% |
| Chelsea | Newcastle United | 27.95% |
| Leeds United | Crystal Palace | 27.95% |
| Sunderland | Brighton & Hove Albion | 26.04% |
| Fulham | Nottingham Forest | 24.30% |
| Burnley | AFC Bournemouth | 18.57% |
| Aston Villa | Manchester United | 17.58% |
| Newcastle United | Chelsea | 16.06% |
| West Ham United | Manchester City | 16.06% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | Brentford | 16.06% |
| Everton | Arsenal | 15.37% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | Liverpool | 10.90% |

Arsenal's 52.70% is over 10 percentage points clear of Liverpool in second place, making their defensive assets particularly attractive this week. Brentford at 40.26% stand out as a value option, sitting above several higher-profile sides. At the bottom, Tottenham at 10.90% and Everton at 15.37% are fixtures to avoid when selecting defenders.

 Arsenal and Liverpool defenders offer the strongest clean sheet backing

Get these probabilities free in Fine Line on iOS and Android.

FPL Gameweek 30 Tips: Best Picks by Probability

Fine Line's goalscorer, assist, and clean sheet probabilities for Gameweek 29. Here are the top picks.

Gameweek 29 Tips: Captain Picks and Key Transfers

Erling Haaland leads Fine Line's anytime goalscorer probabilities at 57.97%, which puts him nearly 13 percentage points clear of the next player on the list. That gap is significant enough to make him the default captain choice this week, assuming he is fit and starting. There is no realistic alternative at that probability level.

Mohamed Salah sits at 36.69%, tied with Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Omar Marmoush. If you are looking for a differential captain or do not own Haaland, Salah remains the most reliable of that group based on his consistency across the season.

For transfers, Hugo Ekitike at 44.59% is worth noting. He sits second in the goalscorer probabilities, more than 5 percentage points ahead of the third-placed player. If he is not already in your squad, the data supports a case for bringing him in.

| Player | Probability |
|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 57.97% |
| Hugo Ekitike | 44.59% |
| Igor Thiago | 39.53% |
| Thierno Barry | 38.65% |
| Rodrigo Muniz | 38.65% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | 37.81% |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 36.69% |
| Mohamed Salah | 36.69% |
| Omar Marmoush | 36.69% |
| Raul Jimenez | 36.23% |
| Eli Junior Kroupi | 34.78% |
| Gabriel Jesus | 34.78% |
| Viktor Gyokeres | 34.78% |
| Antoine Semenyo | 34.78% |
| Beto | 33.44% |
| Iliman-Cheikh Ndiaye | 33.44% |
| Ollie Watkins | 33.44% |
| Tammy Abraham | 33.44% |
| Benjamin Sesko | 33.44% |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 33.44% |

• Haaland is in a category of his own this week. No other player comes close to his 57.97% probability.

• Ekitike at 44.59% is a notable second. He has been consistent enough to warrant attention if you have a free transfer available.

• Igor Thiago, Thierno Barry, and Rodrigo Muniz all sit in the 38-40% range, making them reasonable options if you need coverage at a lower price point.

• Six players share the 33.44% probability at the bottom of the top 20, so there is little to separate them on this metric alone.

| Club | Opponent | Clean Sheet % |
|---|---|---|
| Everton | Burnley | 45.33% |
| Manchester City | Nottingham Forest | 42.97% |
| Arsenal | Brighton & Hove Albion | 41.10% |
| Leeds United | Sunderland | 40.26% |
| Fulham | West Ham United | 30.02% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | Crystal Palace | 28.57% |
| Chelsea | Aston Villa | 24.80% |
| Aston Villa | Chelsea | 24.06% |
| Crystal Palace | Tottenham Hotspur | 24.06% |
| AFC Bournemouth | Brentford | 23.83% |
| Brentford | AFC Bournemouth | 23.08% |
| Sunderland | Leeds United | 23.08% |
| Manchester United | Newcastle United | 21.93% |
| West Ham United | Fulham | 21.42% |
| Newcastle United | Manchester United | 21.42% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Arsenal | 19.49% |
| Burnley | Everton | 18.43% |
| Nottingham Forest | Manchester City | 13.15% |

For defensive picks, Everton lead the clean sheet probabilities at 45.33%, followed closely by Manchester City at 42.97% and Arsenal at 41.10%. Those three fixtures stand out clearly from the rest of the table. If you are selecting defenders or goalkeepers for this gameweek, those are the matchups the data points toward.

Fulham at 30.02% is the next best option after that top group, with a gap of roughly 10 percentage points separating them from Arsenal. Below Fulham, the probabilities drop into the mid-to-low 20s, where the returns become less predictable.

Leeds United at 40.26% is also worth flagging for managers who have coverage in that fixture.

FPL Gameweek Previews

FPL Gameweek 30 Tips: Best Picks by Probability

FPL Gameweek 29 Tips: Best Picks by Probability