The best FPL differentials win you points the rest of your mini league never sees. A differential is just a player hardly anyone owns (we set the limit at 10% here), and the reward is simple. When yours returns and nobody else backed him, you climb the table.

Here are four FPL differentials worth a look for the opening gameweeks of 2026/27. Each pick rests on two things only: what the player did last season, and who his team plays in the first five games. No preseason hype and no guesswork.

Worth saying up front. Most of your squad should be the safe, popular players. They are popular because they score. Carrying one or two differentials around that core is how you quietly get ahead, but it should stay a small part of the team.

| Player | Club | £ | PPG | Pts | % | Min | xGI90 | PPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enzo | Chelsea | 7.0 | 4.4 | 157 | 5.2% | 3,114 | 0.54 | 22.4 |
| Schade | Brentford | 6.0 | 3.6 | 125 | 2.4% | 2,744 | 0.47 | 20.8 |
| Tavernier | Bournemouth | 6.0 | 4.0 | 137 | 1.5% | 2,732 | 0.45 | 22.8 |
| Cherki | Man City | 7.5 | 4.1 | 135 | 9.6% | 1,772 | 0.67 | 18.0 |



*PPM is points per million: last season's total FPL points divided by current price.

Kevin Schade, Brentford, £6.0m, 2.4% owned

Barely owned, and cheap for what he gives you. Schade scored eight goals last season with a 0.40 xG90 and a 0.47 xGI90 across 2,744 minutes, so the goal threat is real and he played nearly every week. At 20.8 points per million he is a lot of output for £6.0m, and 2.4% ownership keeps him a proper differential.

Brentford's start is decent. They face Spurs, Leeds, Sunderland, Bournemouth and Chelsea. 

Marcus Tavernier, Bournemouth, £6.0m, 1.5% owned

Good value at 22.8 points per million, on 4.0 points per game and a 0.45 xGI90 over 2,732 minutes, and owned by just 1.5%. Eli Kroupi's recent injury makes him more important still. With Bournemouth's young forward out, more of the attack runs through Tavernier, which lifts both his floor and his ceiling in the opening weeks.

The fixtures are harder here. Man City and Liverpool sit at either end of the first five. But a player this central to his team's attack, at this price and ownership, is a cheap way to find points.

Rayan Cherki, Man City, £7.5m, 9.6% owned

The big swing, with a catch. Cherki is not nailed. At least he was not with Pep around. His 1,772 minutes tell you he was in and out of the side last season, and City rotated heavily. That is still a risk. The reward is his potential. A 0.67 xGI90 is a serious underlying threat, and if he starts regularly he is a goldmine, because that output over a full run of minutes is worth far more than his 4.1 points per game suggests.

The fixtures back the gamble. City play Bournemouth, Palace, Coventry, Man Utd and Sunderland, a soft and mostly home run, with newly promoted Coventry at home the standout. Watch the team news. If Cherki is starting, this is the pick with the most upside.

Enzo Fernández, Chelsea, £7.0m, 5.2% owned

The numbers speak for themselves. He scored 4.4 points per game over 3,114 minutes last season, with a 0.54 xGI90 off the back of ten goals. That is steady, heavy output for a midfielder, and at 22.4 points per million the price looks light for what he gives you.

One thing to keep an eye on. Enzo returns to training in early August, so a condensed preseason makes him a slight risk for the opening match. He stays a central figure in Chelsea's midfield plans under head coach Xabi Alonso, but his starting spot on the first weekend will come down to his sharpness and match fitness in the final warm up sessions. Check the team news before you lock him in.

Chelsea's opening run is friendly. They play Fulham, Brighton, Arsenal, Hull and Brentford, and only Arsenal looks tough.

Four FPL differentials, all under 10% owned, all backed by last season's output and decent opening fixtures. Build around your safe, popular picks first, then use a differential or two from here to get ahead of the pack. Enzo and Tavernier are the steady options, Schade is the cheap punt, and Cherki is the gamble that could win you the early weeks if he pins down a starting spot.

FPL Differentials 2026/27: Four Cheap Picks for the Opening Gameweeks

Fine Line's goalscorer, assist, and clean sheet probabilities for Gameweek 38. Here are the top picks.

Erling Haaland leads all goalscorer probabilities at 65.38% with 64.2% ownership — if you have him, he's the straightforward captain pick this week. The gap between him and the second-highest probability is nearly 20 percentage points, which makes the decision simple to justify with the numbers alone.

For those without Haaland, Antoine Semenyo at 45.77% is the next strongest option and is owned by 46.7% of managers, so he carries less differential value but remains a high-probability pick. Danny Welbeck at 41.41% with just 8.8% ownership is worth noting if you want a differential with a strong probability behind it.

Zian Flemming also sits at 41.41% with only 0.5% ownership — the lowest ownership of any player in the top five by probability. He has played all 408 available minutes across the last five gameweeks, confirming he is a regular starter.

Kaoru Mitoma appears in the raw data at 30.30% but is listed as 0% to play in FPL due to a hamstring injury, with an expected return date of June 1. Do not factor him into your GW38 plans.

| Player | Probability | Ownership |
|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 65.38% | 64.2% |
| Antoine Semenyo | 45.77% | 46.7% |
| Danny Welbeck | 41.41% | 8.8% |
| Zian Flemming | 41.41% | 0.5% |
| Rayan Cherki | 41.41% | 36.5% |
| Eli Junior Kroupi | 37.81% | 7.0% |
| Richarlison | 37.81% | 7.2% |
| Jarrod Bowen | 36.23% | 14.3% |
| Igor Thiago | 34.78% | 31.1% |
| Chris Wood | 34.78% | 4.6% |
| Evanilson | 34.78% | 2.4% |
| Taty Castellanos | 33.44% | 0.2% |
| William Osula | 33.19% | 1.7% |
| Cole Palmer | 33.19% | 12.5% |
| Randal Muani | 33.19% | 0.4% |
| Gabriel Jesus | 31.62% | 45.9% |
| Liam Delap | 31.62% | 0.9% |
| Kaoru Mitoma* | 30.30% | 2.0% |
| Jaidon Anthony | 30.30% | 2.1% |
| Rayan Vitor | 30.30% | 2.0% |

*Mitoma is 0% to play in FPL (hamstring injury). Do not select him.

A few players worth highlighting beyond the top names:

 both sit at 37.81% with ownership under 8%. Both have played consistent minutes across the last five gameweeks.

 at 34.78% with 2.4% ownership has 387 minutes across the last five gameweeks — he is a regular starter with genuine differential potential.

 at 33.44% with just 0.2% ownership is the lowest-owned player in the top 12 by probability.

 at 31.62% carries 45.9% ownership, making him one of the most-owned players in this list despite sitting outside the top 10 by probability.

| Club | Opponent | Clean Sheet % |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | Aston Villa | 35.64% |
| Arsenal | Crystal Palace | 33.01% |
| West Ham United | Leeds United | 33.01% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | Everton | 32.30% |
| Chelsea | Sunderland | 31.40% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Manchester United | 27.95% |
| Liverpool | Brentford | 27.95% |
| AFC Bournemouth | Nottingham Forest | 26.60% |
| Burnley | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 26.32% |
| Newcastle United | Fulham | 24.80% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | Burnley | 23.08% |
| Fulham | Newcastle United | 21.42% |
| Sunderland | Chelsea | 20.63% |
| Everton | Tottenham Hotspur | 20.63% |
| Nottingham Forest | AFC Bournemouth | 18.43% |
| Crystal Palace | Arsenal | 17.58% |
| Leeds United | West Ham United | 16.79% |
| Manchester United | Brighton & Hove Albion | 16.06% |
| Brentford | Liverpool | 14.85% |
| Aston Villa | Manchester City | 8.49% |

Manchester City lead the clean sheet probabilities at 35.64%, followed by Arsenal and West Ham United both at 33.01%. Aston Villa have the lowest clean sheet probability of any side this week at 8.49%, reflecting the difficulty of their fixture.

For defenders and goalkeepers, the top five clubs by clean sheet probability all sit above 31%, giving a reasonable cluster of options to target.

Get these probabilities free in Fine Line on iOS and Android.

FPL Gameweek 38 Tips: Best Picks by Probability

Fine Line's goalscorer, assist, and clean sheet probabilities for Gameweek 37. Here are the top picks.

The Fine Line probability model gives us clear direction heading into Gameweek 37. Here are the numbers that matter most.

 leads all goalscorer probabilities at 56.83%, facing Burnley who carry the lowest clean sheet probability in the dataset at just 6.37%. He is confirmed fit and available. At 64.5% ownership, he is the most-owned player in this list, so captaining him is the low-risk, high-floor call this week.

 sits level with Haaland's closest rival at 55.39% and is fully available. His last five gameweeks show 450 minutes, meaning he has started every game in that stretch. At 45.5% ownership, he is widely held but still worth the armband consideration if you want to differentiate slightly from the Haaland majority.

 matches Jesus at 55.39% but is owned by just 16% of managers, making him the standout differential captain option this week. He has played 305 minutes across the last five gameweeks and is confirmed fit. If you have him, he is a strong armband candidate.

 (42.42%, 32.1% ownership) has played every available minute over the last five gameweeks — 450 out of 450 — and is fully fit. His probability sits nearly 9 percentage points clear of the next tier of players, and his ownership is high enough to suggest managers already recognise his value.

 (37.81%) is the low-ownership name worth noting. At just 0.7% ownership, he offers genuine differential potential. His season minutes are lower at 850, but he has played 276 minutes across the last five gameweeks, indicating regular recent involvement.

 (39.53%) is listed at 75% to play due to a shin injury. He is not a recommended transfer target this week given that uncertainty, but if he is confirmed fit before your deadline, the probability justifies attention.

| Player | Probability | Ownership |
|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 56.83% | 64.5% |
| Gabriel Jesus | 55.39% | 45.5% |
| Viktor Gyokeres | 55.39% | 16.0% |
| Igor Thiago | 42.42% | 32.1% |
| Benjamin Sesko | 39.53% | 5.4% |
| Rodrigo Muniz | 37.81% | 0.7% |
| Eberechi Eze | 36.69% | 8.9% |
| Antoine Semenyo | 36.69% | 47.7% |
| Beto | 36.23% | 3.1% |
| Danny Welbeck | 36.23% | 9.5% |
| Matheus Cunha | 34.78% | 8.2% |
| William Osula | 34.78% | 1.0% |
| Ollie Watkins | 33.44% | 14.2% |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 33.44% | 13.0% |
| Iliman Ndiaye | 31.62% | 4.5% |
| Emile Smith Rowe | 31.62% | 0.5% |
| Harry Wilson | 31.62% | 18.9% |
| Jarrod Bowen | 31.62% | 12.7% |
| Rayan Cherki | 31.62% | 1.6% |
| Morgan Rogers | 30.30% | 23.0% |

Arsenal's 58.90% clean sheet probability against Burnley stands well clear of the rest of the table — more than 22 percentage points ahead of second-placed Everton. That fixture context reinforces the case for Arsenal defensive assets this week.

| Club | Opponent | Clean Sheet % |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | Burnley | 58.90% |
| Everton | Sunderland | 36.25% |
| Manchester United | Nottingham Forest | 35.64% |
| Brentford | Crystal Palace | 34.15% |
| Fulham | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 32.08% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Leeds United | 27.35% |
| Liverpool | Aston Villa | 24.30% |
| Newcastle United | West Ham United | 24.30% |
| Leeds United | Brighton & Hove Albion | 21.42% |
| Sunderland | Everton | 20.63% |
| Aston Villa | Liverpool | 19.49% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | Fulham | 19.49% |
| West Ham United | Newcastle United | 18.43% |
| Crystal Palace | Brentford | 17.58% |
| Nottingham Forest | Manchester United | 14.85% |
| Burnley | Arsenal | 6.37% |

FPL Gameweek 37 Tips: Best Picks by Probability

Fine Line's goalscorer, assist, and clean sheet probabilities for Gameweek 36. Here are the top picks.

Erling Haaland leads Fine Line's goalscorer probabilities at 84.99% with 62.9% ownership — he is the clear captain choice this week. At that probability, there is no realistic case for looking elsewhere unless you are chasing a differential. His 450 minutes across the last five gameweeks confirm he is playing full games consistently.

The more interesting decision is who to pair alongside him. Antoine Semenyo sits second in the list at 66.88% with 49.6% ownership, nearly 18 percentage points clear of the next player. If you do not own him, he is the standout transfer candidate this week. His 392 minutes across the last five gameweeks show he is a regular starter.

Rayan Cherki at 59.33% is the third-highest probability in the list and carries 35.2% ownership. His 450 minutes in the last five gameweeks are as high as Haaland's, confirming consistent starts.

One player to avoid this week: Dominic Solanke is listed at 34.78% probability but has a 0% chance of playing according to FPL, with a muscle injury and no confirmed return date. Do not factor him into your plans.

Benjamin Sesko is rated at 34.78% but carries a 75% chance of playing due to a shin injury. If you own him, that uncertainty is worth noting before captaining or starting him.

| Player | Probability | Ownership |
|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 84.99% | 62.9% |
| Antoine Semenyo | 66.88% | 49.6% |
| Rayan Cherki | 59.33% | 35.2% |
| Danny Welbeck | 48.31% | 8.3% |
| Jeremy Doku | 44.95% | 3.6% |
| Gabriel Jesus | 38.65% | 44.7% |
| Ollie Watkins | 37.81% | 14.9% |
| Ismaila Sarr | 36.72% | 5.5% |
| Eli Junior Kroupi | 36.23% | 6.0% |
| Benjamin Sesko | 34.78% | 5.9% |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 34.78% | 15.7% |
| Morgan Rogers | 34.78% | 24.4% |
| Dominic Solanke | 34.78% | 1.3% |
| Nico O'Reilly | 34.71% | 18.8% |
| Evanilson | 33.44% | 2.5% |
| Randal Muani | 33.19% | 0.4% |
| Yankuba Minteh | 31.62% | 2.4% |
| Matheus Cunha | 31.62% | 8.0% |
| Lorenzo Lucca | 31.62% | 11.0% |
| Noni Madueke | 31.62% | 0.8% |

A few low-ownership players have probabilities that stand out relative to how few managers own them:

• Danny Welbeck: 48.31% probability, 8.3% ownership. That gap between probability and ownership is one of the largest in the top ten.

• Jeremy Doku: 44.95% probability, 3.6% ownership. His 372 minutes across the last five gameweeks confirm he is starting regularly.

• Ismaila Sarr: 36.72% probability, 5.5% ownership. His 282 minutes in the last five gameweeks are the lowest in this group, so rotation is a factor, but the probability still holds.

• Eli Junior Kroupi: 36.23% probability, 6.0% ownership. His 307 minutes across the last five gameweeks place him in the regular-starter bracket.

Manchester City have a double gameweek this week, facing Crystal Palace and Brentford, which pushes their clean sheet probability to 67.74% — the highest in the league by a significant margin. Brighton are second at 44.30% against Wolverhampton Wanderers, and Aston Villa third at 39.13% against Burnley.

| Club | Opponent | Clean Sheet % |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | Crystal Palace & Brentford | 67.74% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 44.30% |
| Aston Villa | Burnley | 39.13% |
| Arsenal | West Ham United | 38.46% |
| Crystal Palace | Everton & Manchester City | 36.26% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | Leeds United | 33.01% |
| Manchester United | Sunderland | 32.08% |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | 28.89% |
| Liverpool | Chelsea | 24.80% |
| Nottingham Forest | Newcastle United | 24.80% |
| Newcastle United | Nottingham Forest | 24.80% |
| AFC Bournemouth | Fulham | 23.08% |
| Fulham | AFC Bournemouth | 21.42% |
| Sunderland | Manchester United | 20.63% |
| Leeds United | Tottenham Hotspur | 19.49% |
| Burnley | Aston Villa | 16.79% |
| West Ham United | Arsenal | 16.06% |
| Chelsea | Liverpool | 14.85% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | Brighton & Hove Albion | 10.90% |
| Brentford | Manchester City | 10.27% |

For defenders and goalkeepers, Manchester City's 67.74% probability makes their backline the most attractive option in Gameweek 36. Brighton at 44.30% and Aston Villa at 39.13% are the next best options for managers without City assets.

FPL Gameweek 36 Tips: Best Picks by Probability

Fine Line's goalscorer, assist, and clean sheet probabilities for Gameweek 35. Here are the top picks.

Erling Haaland leads Fine Line's goalscorer probabilities at 56.83% with 59.7% ownership — the highest probability in the list by a clear margin. With 450 minutes across the last five gameweeks, he is a regular starter and the most reliable captaincy option this week.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin sits second at 45.77% with just 11.7% ownership. That combination makes him the standout differential pick of the gameweek. He has played every minute across the last five gameweeks and his probability is nearly 11 percentage points ahead of the next cluster of players. At that ownership level, he is worth serious attention for managers looking to gain ground.

Igor Thiago ranks third at 42.42% with 35.3% ownership and the highest season minute total in the top five at 2,922. He has also played all 450 available minutes across the last five gameweeks, confirming his place as a consistent starter.

One player to avoid captaining this week: Dominic Solanke is listed at 31.62% but carries a 50% chance of playing due to a muscle injury. The probability is not high enough to justify the risk given his availability doubt.

Matheus Cunha is also worth noting — he is at 75% to play due to a hip injury. Factor that in before any transfer decision.

| Player | Probability | Ownership |
|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 56.83% | 59.7% |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 45.77% | 11.7% |
| Igor Thiago | 42.42% | 35.3% |
| Gabriel Jesus | 39.53% | 43.7% |
| Danny Welbeck | 38.65% | 7.7% |
| Eli Junior Kroupi | 38.65% | 5.7% |
| Benjamin Sesko | 36.69% | 6.1% |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 36.69% | 16.7% |
| Antoine Semenyo | 36.69% | 51.0% |
| Evanilson | 36.23% | 2.5% |
| Cole Palmer | 36.23% | 16.7% |
| Ollie Watkins | 33.44% | 15.8% |
| Rayan Cherki | 33.19% | 34.4% |
| Brenden Aaronson | 31.62% | 1.2% |
| Rayan Vitor | 31.62% | 1.4% |
| Dominic Solanke | 31.62% | 1.8% |
| Brian Brobbey | 30.30% | 1.2% |
| Matheus Cunha | 30.30% | 8.7% |
| Morgan Rogers | 30.30% | 25.0% |
| Dango Ouattara | 28.05% | 2.3% |

A few names in the mid-range stand out on ownership grounds. Evanilson at 36.23% is owned by just 2.5% of managers. Brenden Aaronson and Brian Brobbey both sit at 1.2% ownership with probabilities above 30%. These are low-ceiling differentials, but the numbers are there if you need separation.

Cole Palmer and Bryan Mbeumo share the same 36.69%/36.23% probability band and both sit at 16.7% ownership — neither is a differential, but both are reasonable mid-price options.

| Club | Opponent | Clean Sheet % |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | Fulham | 47.30% |
| Leeds United | Burnley | 44.30% |
| Manchester City | Everton | 41.10% |
| AFC Bournemouth | Crystal Palace | 36.25% |
| Chelsea | Nottingham Forest | 34.89% |
| Sunderland | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 32.30% |
| Brentford | West Ham United | 28.89% |
| Aston Villa | Tottenham Hotspur | 27.65% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | Sunderland | 26.60% |
| Newcastle United | Brighton & Hove Albion | 24.80% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Newcastle United | 24.30% |
| Manchester United | Liverpool | 23.08% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | Aston Villa | 21.42% |
| Liverpool | Manchester United | 19.49% |
| West Ham United | Brentford | 18.57% |
| Nottingham Forest | Chelsea | 17.58% |
| Crystal Palace | AFC Bournemouth | 16.79% |
| Fulham | Arsenal | 16.06% |
| Everton | Manchester City | 16.06% |
| Burnley | Leeds United | 14.25% |

Arsenal lead the clean sheet table at 47.30%, with Leeds United close behind at 44.30%. Manchester City at 41.10% complete the top three. These three fixtures offer the clearest clean sheet probability for defenders and goalkeepers this week.

At the other end, Burnley, Everton, and Fulham all sit at or below 16.06%. Defenders from those sides carry the most clean sheet risk in Gameweek 35.

FPL Gameweek 35 Tips: Best Picks by Probability

Fine Line's goalscorer, assist, and clean sheet probabilities for Gameweek 34. Here are the top picks.

Dominic Solanke and Benjamin Sesko leads Fine Line's anytime goalscorer probabilities at 39.53%, with Solanke the more compelling differential at just 2% ownership. He has played 433 minutes in the last five gameweeks, so there are no rotation concerns. Sesko has 293 minutes across the same period, which is noticeably lower than the others near the top of the table - worth keeping in mind when weighing him up.

Bryan Mbeumo also sits at 39.53% but carries a 75% chance of playing flag. Factor that uncertainty in before captaining or transferring him in.

Mohamed Salah at 37.81% and 16% ownership remains a strong option. Bukayo Saka appears in the data at 34.78% but has a 0% chance of playing due to an Achilles injury with no return date confirmed - he should not be in your plans for GW34.

| Player | Probability | Ownership |
|---|---|---|
| Dominic Solanke | 39.53% | 2.0% |
| Benjamin Sesko | 39.53% | 6.1% |
| Bryan Mbeumo* | 39.53% | 18.2% |
| Mohamed Salah | 37.81% | 16.0% |
| Bukayo Saka** | 34.78% | 7.0% |
| Rodrigo Muniz | 33.19% | 0.7% |
| Igor Thiago | 33.19% | 35.3% |
| Matheus Cunha | 33.19% | 9.5% |
| Ollie Watkins | 31.62% | 13.9% |
| Jarrod Bowen | 30.30% | 14.0% |
| Mathys Tel | 30.30% | 0.1% |
| Morgan Rogers | 28.99% | 24.2% |
| Cody Gakpo | 28.99% | 5.9% |
| Brian Brobbey | 28.05% | 1.2% |
| Lorenzo Lucca | 28.05% | 11.8% |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | 28.05% | 13.4% |
| Florian Wirtz | 28.05% | 9.2% |
| Beto* | 28.05% | 3.5% |
| Taty Castellanos | 28.05% | 0.2% |

*75% chance of playing. **0% chance of playing — do not select.

A few names worth highlighting beyond the top five:

 at 33.19% and 0.7% ownership is the standout differential in this list. He has 284 minutes in the last five gameweeks, so beware of that.

 at 30.30% and 0.1% ownership is extreme differential territory. His season minutes are 953, reflecting a limited role earlier in the campaign, but his last five gameweek total of 292 minutes shows he now gets more minutes.

 is listed at 28.05% but carries a 75% chance of playing due to a head injury. Avoid unless his status clears.

| Club | Opponent | Clean Sheet % |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | Newcastle | 40.26% |
| Liverpool | Crystal Palace | 39.43% |
| Tottenham | Wolves | 35.15% |
| Sunderland | Nottm Forest | 30.72% |
| Nottm Forest | Sunderland | 30.72% |
| West Ham | Everton | 28.89% |
| Man Utd | Brentford | 28.89% |
| Aston Villa | Fulham | 26.04% |
| Everton | West Ham | 24.80% |
| Fulham | Aston Villa | 24.55% |
| Wolves | Tottenham | 18.43% |
| Brentford | Man Utd | 17.58% |
| Newcastle | Arsenal | 14.25% |
| Crystal Palace | Liverpool | 13.26% |

Arsenal and Liverpool defenders are the strongest clean sheet options this week, both above 39%. Arsenal sit 0.83 percentage points ahead of Liverpool at the top. Tottenham at 35.15% against Wolves is also worth noting for defenders in that price range.

Sunderland and Nottingham Forest share identical 30.72% probabilities against each other, which is a reasonable return for a mid-table fixture. West Ham and Manchester United both sit at 28.89%.

Newcastle defenders face Arsenal and carry only a 14.25% clean sheet probability — the lowest of any side with a realistic defensive asset base. Crystal Palace at 13.26% against Liverpool is similarly unattractive from a clean sheet standpoint.

FPL Gameweek 34 Tips: Best Picks by Probability

Fine Line's goalscorer, assist, and clean sheet probabilities for Gameweek 33. Here are the top picks.

Erling Haaland leads Fine Line's goalscorer probabilities at 81.36% with 59.6% ownership — he is the clear top pick for captain this week. His last five gameweeks show 360 minutes, meaning he has not played every game in full, but his availability is confirmed at 100% and the probability gap between him and the field is significant. The second-highest probability belongs to Dominic Calvert-Lewin at 61.67%, nearly 20 percentage points behind Haaland. Captaining Haaland is straightforward this week.

For transfers, Dominic Calvert-Lewin at 11.1% ownership stands out. A 61.67% goalscoring probability with that ownership level is a meaningful differential. He is confirmed available and has played all 450 minutes across the last five gameweeks, which confirms his starting status. Antoine Semenyo at 58.65% is already owned by 56.8% of managers, so he offers less upside as a transfer target, though he remains a strong hold.

Eli Junior Kroupi (56.39%, 5.8% ownership) is another differential worth noting. His season minutes are lower at 1,232, but he has accumulated 276 minutes across the last five gameweeks, confirming he is in the picture. At under 6% ownership, the upside is real if you can fit him in.

| Player | Probability | Ownership |
|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 81.36% | 59.6% |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 61.67% | 11.1% |
| Antoine Semenyo | 58.65% | 56.8% |
| Eli Junior Kroupi | 56.39% | 5.8% |
| Danny Welbeck | 55.70% | 8.6% |
| Rayan Cherki | 53.72% | 33.2% |
| Cole Palmer | 53.61% | 19.2% |
| Evanilson | 52.74% | 2.6% |
| Joao Pedro | 52.11% | 50.6% |
| Rayan Vitor | 46.45% | 1.9% |
| Diego Gomez | 44.62% | 1.0% |
| Brenden Aaronson | 43.69% | 1.2% |
| Lorenzo Lucca | 41.41% | 12.4% |
| Yankuba Minteh | 39.89% | 2.7% |
| Enzo Fernandez | 38.61% | 12.4% |
| Igor Thiago | 37.81% | 33.8% |
| Ollie Watkins | 36.23% | 8.2% |
| Marcus Tavernier | 35.35% | 5.3% |
| Anthony Gordon | 34.78% | 7.2% |
| Zian Flemming | 34.71% | 0.4% |

A few players in the mid-table range are worth highlighting. Cole Palmer (53.61%, 19.2% ownership) has played 439 minutes across the last five gameweeks and is confirmed available. Danny Welbeck at 55.70% and 8.6% ownership offers differential value with full availability confirmed. Evanilson at 52.74% and just 2.6% ownership is the most extreme differential in the top ten — he has 387 minutes in the last five gameweeks and is confirmed fit.

Diego Gomez (44.62%, 1.0% ownership) and Brenden Aaronson (43.69%, 1.2% ownership) both sit in the lower ownership bracket with solid probabilities. These are speculative picks rather than core recommendations, but the numbers are there for managers willing to take the risk.

| Club | Opponent | Clean Sheet % |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds United | Wolverhampton Wanderers & AFC Bournemouth | 54.51% |
| Nottingham Forest | Burnley | 44.00% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Tottenham Hotspur & Chelsea | 42.88% |
| Chelsea | Manchester United & Brighton & Hove Albion | 42.16% |
| Aston Villa | Sunderland | 42.11% |
| AFC Bournemouth | Leeds United & Newcastle United | 40.83% |
| Manchester City | Arsenal | 38.46% |
| Crystal Palace | West Ham United | 31.40% |
| Liverpool | Everton | 30.72% |
| Brentford | Fulham | 30.02% |
| Newcastle United | AFC Bournemouth | 26.04% |
| West Ham United | Crystal Palace | 24.55% |
| Everton | Liverpool | 23.83% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | Brighton & Hove Albion | 23.08% |
| Fulham | Brentford | 21.42% |
| Arsenal | Manchester City | 20.63% |
| Manchester United | Chelsea | 19.49% |
| Sunderland | Aston Villa | 19.49% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | Leeds United | 18.57% |
| Burnley | Nottingham Forest | 16.06% |

Leeds United top the clean sheet table at 54.51%, though they face two fixtures this gameweek which affects how that probability is calculated. Nottingham Forest at 44.00% against Burnley is the cleanest single-fixture clean sheet opportunity near the top of the table. Brighton defenders and Chelsea defenders both sit above 42%, making them worth considering for your backline this week.

At the bottom, Burnley (16.06%) and Wolverhampton Wanderers (18.57%) offer very little defensive value. Arsenal at 20.63% facing Manchester City is a difficult fixture reflected clearly in the data.

FPL Gameweek 33 Tips: Best Picks by Probability

Fine Line's goalscorer, assist, and clean sheet probabilities for Gameweek 32. Here are the top picks.

Gameweek 32 Tips: Captain Picks and Key Transfers

Erling Haaland leads Fine Line's anytime goalscorer probabilities at 50.56% with 55.6% ownership - he is the standout captain option this week. His last five gameweek minutes total is 315, which is below a full complement of appearances, but he remains 100% to play and his probability sits well clear of the field.

Hugo Ekitike is the second-highest scorer on the list at 43.48%, owned by 34.6% of managers. He has played 288 minutes across the last five gameweeks and is fully available. At that ownership level, he is not a differential, but his probability justifies selection if you do not already have him.

Viktor Gyokeres is the most notable differential in the top five. He has logged 342 minutes in the last five gameweeks and is 100% to play. If you are looking to separate yourself from the field, Gyokeres is the clearest option in the top tier of this data.

One player to avoid captaining this week: Bukayo Saka is listed at 34.78% probability but carries a 75% chance of playing due to a knock. That uncertainty makes him a poor armband choice regardless of his underlying numbers.

| Player | 1+ goals | Ownership |
|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 50.56% | 55.6% |
| Hugo Ekitike | 43.48% | 34.6% |
| Viktor Gyokeres | 42.42% | 11.7% |
| Mohamed Salah | 38.65% | 14.0% |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 38.65% | 21.9% |
| Danny Welbeck | 37.81% | 5.6% |
| Igor Thiago | 36.23% | 36.3% |
| Jarrod Bowen | 34.78% | 9.0% |
| Bukayo Saka | 34.78% | 7.9% |
| Jorgen Larsen | 33.44% | 1.8% |
| Matheus Cunha | 33.44% | 8.4% |
| Taty Castellanos | 33.19% | 0.1% |
| Dominic Solanke | 31.62% | 1.1% |
| Antoine Semenyo | 30.30% | 54.2% |
| Cole Palmer | 30.30% | 16.5% |
| Diego Gomez | 28.99% | 0.5% |
| Cody Gakpo | 28.99% | 5.8% |
| Lorenzo Lucca | 28.99% | 14.0% |
| Ollie Watkins | 28.99% | 8.2% |

A few players worth noting beyond the top five:

 sits at 37.81% with just 5.6% ownership. He has played 373 minutes in the last five gameweeks, confirming he is a regular starter. That combination of probability and low ownership is worth attention.

 is owned by 54.2% of managers but carries a probability of 30.30% - 20 percentage points below Haaland. That gap is worth keeping in mind when weighing captaincy.

 (31.62%, 1.1% ownership), and Diego Gomez (28.99%, 0.5% ownership) are deep differentials. Castellanos has 386 minutes in the last five gameweeks; Solanke has 371, and Gomez has 416. All are active starters despite low season minute totals.

• Saka's 75% availability status makes him a risk at any position this week.

| Club | Opponent | Clean Sheet |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | Bournemouth | 42.97% |
| Manchester United | Leeds United | 38.46% |
| Brighton | Burnley | 36.25% |
| West Ham United | Wolves | 34.89% |
| Brentford | Everton | 33.73% |
| Liverpool | Fulham | 33.73% |
| Nottingham Forest | Aston Villa | 27.95% |
| Aston Villa | Nottingham Forest | 27.95% |
| Sunderland | Tottenham Hotspur | 27.65% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | Sunderland | 27.65% |
| Newcastle United | Crystal Palace | 27.35% |
| Manchester City | Chelsea | 24.55% |
| Everton | Brentford | 24.30% |
| Crystal Palace | Newcastle United | 23.08% |
| Wolves | West Ham United | 19.49% |
| Chelsea | Manchester City | 19.49% |
| Burnley | Brighton | 18.43% |
| Leeds United | Manchester United | 16.06% |
| Bournemouth | Arsenal | 14.25% |
| Fulham | Liverpool | 14.25% |

Arsenal have the highest clean sheet probability at 42.97%, nearly 4 percentage points clear of Manchester United in second. Arsenal defenders are the most reliable clean sheet asset this week based on the data. Liverpool and Brentford both sit at 33.73%, making their defenders reasonable options as well.

Manchester City's clean sheet probability drops to 24.55% against Chelsea, which is notably lower than their season average expectations - factor that in if you hold City defensive assets.

FPL Gameweek 32 Tips: Best Picks by Probability

Fine Line's goalscorer, assist, and clean sheet probabilities for Gameweek 31. Here are the top picks.

Raul Jimenez leads the goalscorer probabilities this week at 39.53%, making him the standout number based on Fine Line's data. At 3.3% ownership, he is a genuine differential. Bryan Mbeumo sits just behind at 37.81% with 22.8% ownership, and Hugo Ekitike follows at 36.69% with 36% ownership. If you are looking for a captain pick with high probability and low ownership risk, Jimenez is the clearest option the data supports.

For transfers, Dominic Calvert-Lewin (34.78%, 7.7% owned) and Ollie Watkins (34.78%, 8.3% owned) share the same probability and offer mid-range ownership profiles. Both have played full minutes across the last five gameweeks, confirming their starter status.

Note on Dominic Solanke: he carries a 75% chance of playing due to a hip injury. His probability of 33.44% is solid, but the availability risk makes him a poor captain choice and a questionable transfer target unless his status improves before the deadline.

Mohamed Salah is listed at 75% to play with a muscle injury. Factor that in before selecting him, despite his 30.30% goalscoring probability.

| Player | 1+ goals % | Ownership |
|---|---|---|
| Raul Jimenez | 39.53% | 3.3% |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 37.81% | 22.8% |
| Hugo Ekitike | 36.69% | 36.0% |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 34.78% | 7.7% |
| Igor Thiago | 34.78% | 36.4% |
| Ollie Watkins | 34.78% | 8.3% |
| Dominic Solanke | 33.44% | 1.2% |
| Cole Palmer | 33.19% | 17.5% |
| Eli Junior Kroupi | 31.62% | 6.1% |
| Matheus Cunha | 31.62% | 8.3% |
| Harry Wilson | 31.62% | 23.8% |
| Morgan Rogers | 31.62% | 24.9% |
| Evanilson | 30.30% | 2.2% |
| Danny Welbeck | 30.30% | 4.0% |
| Mohamed Salah | 30.30% | 14.7% |
| Joao Pedro | 30.30% | 50.7% |
| Anthony Gordon | 30.30% | 6.1% |
| Harvey Barnes | 30.30% | 1.2% |


A few players worth noting from the table:

• Joao Pedro is the most-owned player in the top 20 at 50.7%, with a 30.30% probability. He is 9 percentage points behind Jimenez.

• Igor Thiago and Hugo Ekitike both sit above 34%, with ownership around 36%. Their probability is strong, but the ownership level reduces their differential value.

• Cole Palmer at 33.19% with 17.5% ownership is a reasonable mid-ownership option with strong recent minutes (423 in the last five gameweeks).

Fulham lead all clubs with a 42.97% clean sheet probability against Burnley. Newcastle follow at 39.43% against Sunderland, making defenders from both sides worth considering.

| Club | Opponent | Clean Sheet % |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham | Burnley | 42.97% |
| Newcastle United | Sunderland | 39.43% |
| Chelsea | Everton | 31.40% |
| Aston Villa | West Ham United | 30.72% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | Nottingham Forest | 30.72% |
| Leeds United | Brentford | 28.57% |
| Liverpool | Brighton & Hove Albion | 27.35% |
| Brentford | Leeds United | 26.32% |
| Manchester United | AFC Bournemouth | 26.04% |
| Nottingham Forest | Tottenham Hotspur | 24.55% |
| Everton | Chelsea | 23.08% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Liverpool | 21.42% |
| West Ham United | Aston Villa | 20.63% |
| AFC Bournemouth | Manchester United | 19.49% |
| Sunderland | Newcastle United | 18.57% |
| Burnley | Fulham | 16.79% |

Fulham's probability is 3.54 percentage points clear of Newcastle, and both are well ahead of the rest of the field. If you are targeting defensive assets this week, those two fixtures stand out clearly. Chelsea at 31.40% against Everton is the next best option for managers who already hold assets from the top two.

These chances are of course subject to change before the deadline. Live probabilities can always be found in the Fine Line app - for free.

FPL Gameweek 31 Tips: Best Picks by Probability

Fine Line's goalscorer and clean sheet probabilities for Gameweek 30. Here are the top picks.

Erling Haaland leads all goalscorer probabilities at 55.39% this week, making him the clearest captaincy option in the data. Mohamed Salah sits at 41.41%, nearly 14 percentage points behind Haaland, which reinforces Haaland as the top pick rather than a coin flip between the two. If you are looking for a differential, Hugo Ekitike and Igor Thiago both sit at 48.31%, placing them second in the goalscorer rankings and well ahead of most premium options.

Haaland at 55.39% is the straightforward choice. That probability is over 6 percentage points clear of the next two players and reflects a genuine edge in the data. Salah at 41.41% remains a strong alternative for those who hold him, but the gap between the two is meaningful enough to favour Haaland where possible.

These are anytime goalscorer probabilities generated by Fine Line, a free FPL stats app available on iOS and Android.

| Player | Probability |
|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 55.39% |
| Hugo Ekitike | 48.31% |
| Igor Thiago | 48.31% |
| Mohamed Salah | 41.41% |
| Kaye Furo | 41.41% |
| Gabriel Jesus | 39.53% |
| Viktor Gyokeres | 39.53% |
| Cole Palmer | 38.65% |
| Benjamin Sesko | 38.65% |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 38.65% |
| Eli Junior Kroupi | 37.81% |
| Jayden Danns | 36.69% |
| Evanilson | 36.23% |
| Joao Pedro | 36.23% |
| Liam Delap | 36.23% |
| Marc Guiu | 36.23% |
| Shumaira Mheuka | 36.23% |
| Omar Marmoush | 36.23% |
| Reiss Nelson | 36.23% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | 34.78% |

A few names worth noting beyond the top three: Viktor Gyokeres and Gabriel Jesus both sit at 39.53%, placing them ahead of Cole Palmer, Sesko, and Mbeumo who are clustered at 38.65%. The gap between Haaland and the rest of the top 20 is notable. Only Ekitike and Thiago come within 7 percentage points of him, and both carry differential appeal given their lower ownership levels in most squads.

Kaye Furo at 41.41% is the same probability as Salah, which may surprise some managers. If you are considering a transfer into the mid-price range, that number is worth factoring into your decision.

Arsenal have the highest clean sheet probability this week at 52.70%, a significant margin over the rest of the table. Liverpool are second at 42.11%, followed by Brentford at 40.26%.

| Club | Opponent | Clean Sheet % |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | Everton | 52.70% |
| Liverpool | Tottenham Hotspur | 42.11% |
| Brentford | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 40.26% |
| Manchester United | Aston Villa | 34.89% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Sunderland | 33.73% |
| AFC Bournemouth | Burnley | 33.01% |
| Manchester City | West Ham United | 31.40% |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | 31.40% |
| Crystal Palace | Leeds United | 30.72% |
| Chelsea | Newcastle United | 27.95% |
| Leeds United | Crystal Palace | 27.95% |
| Sunderland | Brighton & Hove Albion | 26.04% |
| Fulham | Nottingham Forest | 24.30% |
| Burnley | AFC Bournemouth | 18.57% |
| Aston Villa | Manchester United | 17.58% |
| Newcastle United | Chelsea | 16.06% |
| West Ham United | Manchester City | 16.06% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | Brentford | 16.06% |
| Everton | Arsenal | 15.37% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | Liverpool | 10.90% |

Arsenal's 52.70% is over 10 percentage points clear of Liverpool in second place, making their defensive assets particularly attractive this week. Brentford at 40.26% stand out as a value option, sitting above several higher-profile sides. At the bottom, Tottenham at 10.90% and Everton at 15.37% are fixtures to avoid when selecting defenders.

 Arsenal and Liverpool defenders offer the strongest clean sheet backing

FPL Gameweek 30 Tips: Best Picks by Probability

Fine Line's goalscorer, assist, and clean sheet probabilities for Gameweek 29. Here are the top picks.

Gameweek 29 Tips: Captain Picks and Key Transfers

Erling Haaland leads Fine Line's anytime goalscorer probabilities at 57.97%, which puts him nearly 13 percentage points clear of the next player on the list. That gap is significant enough to make him the default captain choice this week, assuming he is fit and starting. There is no realistic alternative at that probability level.

Mohamed Salah sits at 36.69%, tied with Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Omar Marmoush. If you are looking for a differential captain or do not own Haaland, Salah remains the most reliable of that group based on his consistency across the season.

For transfers, Hugo Ekitike at 44.59% is worth noting. He sits second in the goalscorer probabilities, more than 5 percentage points ahead of the third-placed player. If he is not already in your squad, the data supports a case for bringing him in.

| Player | Probability |
|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 57.97% |
| Hugo Ekitike | 44.59% |
| Igor Thiago | 39.53% |
| Thierno Barry | 38.65% |
| Rodrigo Muniz | 38.65% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta | 37.81% |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 36.69% |
| Mohamed Salah | 36.69% |
| Omar Marmoush | 36.69% |
| Raul Jimenez | 36.23% |
| Eli Junior Kroupi | 34.78% |
| Gabriel Jesus | 34.78% |
| Viktor Gyokeres | 34.78% |
| Antoine Semenyo | 34.78% |
| Beto | 33.44% |
| Iliman-Cheikh Ndiaye | 33.44% |
| Ollie Watkins | 33.44% |
| Tammy Abraham | 33.44% |
| Benjamin Sesko | 33.44% |
| Bryan Mbeumo | 33.44% |

• Haaland is in a category of his own this week. No other player comes close to his 57.97% probability.

• Ekitike at 44.59% is a notable second. He has been consistent enough to warrant attention if you have a free transfer available.

• Igor Thiago, Thierno Barry, and Rodrigo Muniz all sit in the 38-40% range, making them reasonable options if you need coverage at a lower price point.

• Six players share the 33.44% probability at the bottom of the top 20, so there is little to separate them on this metric alone.

| Club | Opponent | Clean Sheet % |
|---|---|---|
| Everton | Burnley | 45.33% |
| Manchester City | Nottingham Forest | 42.97% |
| Arsenal | Brighton & Hove Albion | 41.10% |
| Leeds United | Sunderland | 40.26% |
| Fulham | West Ham United | 30.02% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | Crystal Palace | 28.57% |
| Chelsea | Aston Villa | 24.80% |
| Aston Villa | Chelsea | 24.06% |
| Crystal Palace | Tottenham Hotspur | 24.06% |
| AFC Bournemouth | Brentford | 23.83% |
| Brentford | AFC Bournemouth | 23.08% |
| Sunderland | Leeds United | 23.08% |
| Manchester United | Newcastle United | 21.93% |
| West Ham United | Fulham | 21.42% |
| Newcastle United | Manchester United | 21.42% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | Arsenal | 19.49% |
| Burnley | Everton | 18.43% |
| Nottingham Forest | Manchester City | 13.15% |

For defensive picks, Everton lead the clean sheet probabilities at 45.33%, followed closely by Manchester City at 42.97% and Arsenal at 41.10%. Those three fixtures stand out clearly from the rest of the table. If you are selecting defenders or goalkeepers for this gameweek, those are the matchups the data points toward.

Fulham at 30.02% is the next best option after that top group, with a gap of roughly 10 percentage points separating them from Arsenal. Below Fulham, the probabilities drop into the mid-to-low 20s, where the returns become less predictable.

Leeds United at 40.26% is also worth flagging for managers who have coverage in that fixture.

FPL Gameweek Previews